Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Mon Aug 10 18:17:47 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In theory, a bigger poll/polling average would shrink error until it reached the practical limits of nonsampling error, like undecided voters / turnout / interviewer effect, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Back in the early days of polling averages, you could argue that polling averages worked because the polls were fundamentally unbiased samples, controlling for house effects. Aggregating polls was like getting one really big and good poll, with a steadily shrinking MoE. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In this view, polls would only need to be weighted by sample size with a control for house effects, provided that the polls met the theoretical conditions for unbiased sampling — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2020 Hibernated