Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Fri Aug 07 13:47:36 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another thing that rigorous averages do is adjust for 'house effects'--persistent bias in a poll. But these house effects don't go as far as you might think, since they're calculated with respect to the quality weighted average--which still includes a *ton* of non-live polls — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You can see that we have these moments in mid-July and mid-June when the live polls rise to nearly match the online polls. But right now, they're only about 15% of the estimate, even though they're considered the best polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As a result, it's not like the House Effect drag Rasmussen all the way back to the live polls. Instead, it drags Rasmussen back toward the average, which is something more like a Morning Consult and YouGov. Similarly, a Monmouth poll would be adjusted back to the right. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 7, 2020 Hibernated