Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Fri Aug 07 13:42:30 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here, for instance, is what the poll averages look like if you break the polls down by method. Black = all; blue = live; red = online; green = IVR. The live interview average is still at Biden+9.4, with the drop below 10 attributable to the one live poll of the last two weeks https://t.co/jchbxstqvN — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One reason is a change in the composition of recent polls. There's just one live interview national survey among the last *50* recorded by FiveThirtyEight. And in June/July, live interview surveys were quite a bit better for Biden than the others. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The rigorous polling averages--like the one you see here, or FiveThirtyEight--do give more weight to the live interview polls. But there's only so much you can do. Despite those efforts, IVR polls would probably still have more weight in the average--the live polls are too old https://t.co/5LROtpWhcv — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 7, 2020 Hibernated