Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked April 1, 2021

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Tue Jul 28 18:01:55 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @NateSilver538 seems totally unimportant? who cares whether there's any material advantage to average/regression of 10000 state polls from 1000 pollsters v. MRP with 10000 state polls from 1000 pollsters (there isn't) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @NateSilver538 but the point of nate's exercise is what to do when you don't have much/any state polling at all, let alone the microdata! i don't see how it's remotely equivalent — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @NateSilver538 'all else equal' is the hang up. the material question is whether MRP competes with topline-based averages/regression in the actual pre-election information environment. if we get the microdata for all the polls being aggregated, MRP could compete. that's not the world we have — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated