Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @NateSilver538 yes, though there's a lot going into ironing out those biases on a plausibly predictive basis that goes well beyond the standard MRP stuff (though even the most heroic effort isn't going to get Indiana as a tossup in 08, or something) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @NateSilver538 i totally buy that--and that's why our demographic analysis/prior MRP efforts exclusively use telephone survey data. but the same thing holds: you can't convince your model that clinton's really only at 22 percent among GA whites or whatever without...a state poll's worth of data — PolitiTweet.org