Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked March 26, 2021

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Tue Jul 28 17:03:51 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @NateSilver538 (as an aside, he's right that mrp means you only get one pollster's data, perhaps sometimes for the better but often for worse, unless you have microdata from multiple polls. don't really see a way around that argument, whatever the other merits) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @NateSilver538 mrp is less biased than the polls in '16 in no small part bc regularization means you often underestimate dem strength in the midwest and overestimate it in the south, which why you get gelman predicting clinton wins MS and why you keep showing biden up 6 in GA — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @NateSilver538 (and it just isn't true that the principle difference between pollsters is the joint distribution of census demographics or their LV screen. plausibly true within frame/model, like among national RDD polls. probably not otherwise) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated