Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked March 20, 2021

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Fri Jul 24 13:48:57 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Third, it's still just one data point, even if it's generalizable and perfect. Polls are noisy and so is the effect of education. Sometimes, weighting by education makes a poll less or more accurate, just by chance. The reduction in *bias* is only evident over many polls — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Second, is that the Kentucky gov election, whatever its merits, may not be the most representative race. After all, we're talking about an election a Dem won in Kentucky. Even if the test was perfect, why assume KYGOV test is generalizable given that it's facially so unusual? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Separately, it is odd to depend so much on this test given the huge amount of data that NBC/Marist has to work with! They have 9 final polls from '18, more in previous years. Would they have fared better with education weights? That's testable and far more generalizable. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 24, 2020 Hibernated