Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked March 8, 2021

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Sun Jul 19 17:22:50 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan @ben_golub @gelliottmorris very few of these wind up in election years from 1948-2016. they nonetheless happen, and i can think of many creative ways to try and deal with it (including using 1948-2016 approval data) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan @ben_golub @gelliottmorris we have some obvious cases, though some are debatable i suppose: covid; 9/01-3/03, 8/90-3/91, i'd argue the late 60s, 1940-1945, 1914-1920, arguably the whole era from 1856 through 1876 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @BrendanNyhan @ben_golub at the moment, your mean estimate looks awfully close to being outside your 95% CI from march? your modal estimate (and second likeliest) seem to be. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated