Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked March 8, 2021

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Sun Jul 19 15:21:21 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So I don't think there's anything odd about a Monmouth poll (N=400 total!) showing a big LV/RV gap while our poll of PA (N=650 total!) doesn't really show one. That's just going to happen. Feel free to average it, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

1) In general, self-reported LV screens will be noisy. Think about it. You've got two appx. N=400 samples of Biden and Trump voters. For each, the 'almost certain' to vote proportion has that +/- 5 MoE. So there's nothing weird about a lot of noise in the LV-RV gap, poll to poll — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

2) That said, this is the second consecutive ABC/Post poll to show a 5 point LV/RV gap. The May poll was 10 with RVs and 5 with LVs. So I'd be somewhat less inclined to dismiss it as noise; perhaps there's a pattern here, at least for this pollster — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated