Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 18, 2020

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Wed May 06 13:29:01 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another is the big question about COVID turnout. I think turnout's always a challenge, but there's no way around the possibility that the pandemic has some big and tough to predict consequences for both the level and pattern of turnout — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another is the growing use of recalled 2016 vote to ensure that mediocre samples wind up in the ballpark. This is a fine way to reduce error--i mean, you could probably get in the ballpark by weighting a sample of NYC to clinton/trump nationally. But bias is a very real risk here — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This isn't a state-only poll challenge. But there could easily be state-level variance in the way this plays out, and I'd guess that it's easier to conceive of some relatively large outcomes in a state or two even as the nation overall seems relative normal — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 6, 2020 Hibernated