Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 18, 2020

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Wed May 06 13:24:07 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One is the explosion of new, online state polls. There were fairly rare in 16/18, making up like 10% of state pollsters. Over the last month, they're half of the pollsters. This is a pretty easy risk to guard against, but there is some risk here — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Three years ago, I wrote this summary of state polling issues in '16. I think if you go down the list, you'd probably conclude that most of them are less serious--in some way or another--than they were in '16. There are some new issues to mull, though https://t.co/HzwTpfq75Y — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another is the growing use of recalled 2016 vote to ensure that mediocre samples wind up in the ballpark. This is a fine way to reduce error--i mean, you could probably get in the ballpark by weighting a sample of NYC to clinton/trump nationally. But bias is a very real risk here — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 6, 2020 Hibernated