Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 14, 2020

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Fri Apr 24 18:12:47 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But look, I'm not at all contending that this is sure to be good for Trump! I'm just saying this is a highly sensitive and difficult to evaluate situation if you have a quick V-type recovery right ahead of an election. It could be a disaster for Trump; it might not be so bad. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's not simply GDP matters and unemployment doesn't. It's that the rate of change matters. You can feel optimistic if you're convinced things are getting better, even if they're bad in absolute terms (FDR '36, as just one ex) https://t.co/DSqXNaAm5i — PolitiTweet.org

@Nate_Cohn An 11.7 unemployment rate in Q4 seems like it would matter a lot more than GDP

Posted April 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And that's before you consider the uncertainty in the forecast itself, which can't possibly be particularly confident about what's going to happen by Q3 given all of the external factors — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 24, 2020 Hibernated