Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 12, 2020

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Mon Feb 03 19:57:23 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The design-based view is the classical view. Here, a probability sample = a good poll. If everyone has a known chance of selection, then the results should fall within a theoretical margin of error due to sampling — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 3, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Without wading into this specific debate, the feud over MRP gets at a pretty fundamental question about survey research right now: do polls work because they have a design that yields a representative sample, or do polls work because they have a good model to correct error? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 3, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The model-based view says design doesn't do it anymore; that's why they all use extensive weighting. Instead, polls work because of the model: we basically just make inferences about the population based on an unrepresentative sample by controlling for demog. used for weighting — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 3, 2020 Hibernated