Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 22, 2020

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Wed Dec 18 14:07:56 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The live interview polls are harder to measure, overall or individually. There are fewer of them, so the estimate is more volatile. But we have more than enough recent polls to say that it's not in the same place as online and better for Trump (online = blue; live = red) https://t.co/i3xBZkhY9h — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 18, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As a result, a Morning Consult house effect calculation now basically goes the wrong way. This is not a critique of 538 or House Effects more generally, and I don't think it messes up the averages over all, but it is a great illustration of how much the relationship has changed https://t.co/WgMV5NYSqn — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 18, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Notice: --blue has basically been higher than red for a year, with no variability --the recent and abrupt 'jump' in the president's approval is basically exclusively due to an infusion of live interview polls (we often go weeks without them, so it shows up abruptly here) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 18, 2019 Hibernated