Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 22, 2020

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Wed Dec 18 13:59:55 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We have enough online data to evaluate individual pollsters, and they don't all act the same. YouGov is basically always unflinching; Morning Consult has an outright counter-cyclical trend: it was Trump's best pollster in '17, now it's his worse, and it's fairly stable in 2019. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 18, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Though the chart isn't labeled properly, this is the president's rating among online-only polls (all adjusted to RVs). There's no 2019 variance, and it places the president lower than he was in 2018 https://t.co/5twnjRitY4 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 18, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As a result, a Morning Consult house effect calculation now basically goes the wrong way. This is not a critique of 538 or House Effects more generally, and I don't think it messes up the averages over all, but it is a great illustration of how much the relationship has changed https://t.co/WgMV5NYSqn — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 18, 2019 Hibernated