Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 17, 2020

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Wed Nov 27 22:12:48 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, I think the tendency for high-turnout/highly educated voters to respond to polls helps explain some of the geographic patterns we see in poll bias, and I wonder whether the particular enthusiasm of the 2018-surge resistance vote may be a particular challenge right now — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We do account for this both on the front-end and by weighting. It's a major difference between us and other pollsters, and I'd say our more surprising results generally line up with this explanation (though it's messy to try and directly untangle the effect of our choice here) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So I think this has some potential to explain some things. If this is generalizable (it may not be), over-representation of more regular voters would tend to overestimate Dems in the Midwest and underestimate them in the Sun Belt (prior version of this tweet was backward/deleted) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated