Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 12, 2020

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Tue Nov 12 17:25:01 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(IA-4 neighbors Nebraska and voted about the same for Trump, though much better for Obama) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 12, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Is it possible that there's a huge rebellion against Trump there? Maybe. Possibly. But when we polled NE-2 last year (a Trump+2 CD), we had Trump approval at minus-2. When we polled IA-4, we had Trump+18 approval and got the result about right — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 12, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So maybe there's a Trump rebellion. Or maybe it's tough to reach rural white voters and, even when they do, may be getting a fairly non-Trump group. Can't prove it either way, but it's a big gap with my priors, fits a persistent bias in polling, and our data is inconsistent — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 12, 2019 Hibernated