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Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 28, 2020

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Tue Sep 10 17:17:42 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Either way, be prepared for McCready to put up some big early vote numbers. If he's up by double digits or something, it's not over! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And early vote seems better for Dems than it looks based on party reg. It's highly concentrated in Mecklenurg/Union. The unaffiliated vote includes disproportionately Dem primary voters. Among Times/Siena respondents, early voters are better for McC, controlling for demographics — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you model the early vote using Times/Siena data, you'd get McCready+13 in a tied election. Small sample of early voters so I really wouldn't take this to the bank, but you get the general idea — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 10, 2019 Hibernated