Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 28, 2020

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Tue Aug 13 20:22:10 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@otis_reid could just be intercept shift, but it is possibly worth noting that we don't really have pro-Dem bias (D+0.5) in the states that were biased towards clinton in 16. we just have more significant pro-GOP bias in the states where polls were biased towards trump — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 13, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@otis_reid if you prefer, the coefficient for 2016 bias is .309 in upshot polls and .652 in non-upshot polls, so a little less than half the effect here — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 13, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@otis_reid i am not saying this is true, but it is at least possible that something like issues with hispanic voters / misestimation of turnout could hurt dems in, say, california without it indicating that this broader pattern would exist — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 13, 2019 Hibernated