Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And again, none of this means Trump is favored. His ratings are well under 50. He'll probably lose if he's at 45/55 with RVs and I'm pretty agonistic on his chances over the long term. But all of this strikes me as pretty important for the way to think about his position — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you're a Dem, for instance, who thinks all you need to do is boost black turnout to something closer to '12, I would caution that this may no longer be what it takes to win. It's not '16 anymore. — PolitiTweet.org