Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 28, 2020

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Wed Aug 07 17:07:28 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I often see a 2016-based view of 2020 in my replies. They take Trump '16 support, and then say Dems can win with incremental changes like higher black turnout or a better candidate. I don't think that assumption works, in part bc Trump is also stronger than he was in '16 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 7, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Something that has interested me in recent months: Trump's approval rating has increased a bit in live interview polls, both surpassing the online polls (for the first time) and reaching the highest levels of term https://t.co/WLc7KudRZg — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 7, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And again, none of this means Trump is favored. His ratings are well under 50. He'll probably lose if he's at 45/55 with RVs and I'm pretty agonistic on his chances over the long term. But all of this strikes me as pretty important for the way to think about his position — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 7, 2019 Hibernated