Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 28, 2020

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Fri Aug 02 18:46:01 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And like everyone, I think it's hard to imagine Texas as the tipping-point state. But I don't think it is 100% unimaginable. High turnout narrows the TX-PA/WI gap v 18. And if Trump wins, isn't it likeliest to be through WWC gains, which wouldn't help him so much in TX? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 2, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos that history is part of why i kind of doubt whether dems can really win some of these voters. but the approval ratings and '18 results just aren't very different, and the dems arguably have both more upside and less downside in texas — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 2, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That still seems like a "Trump+3.5 in TX, Trump+1 in WI." And Arizona is ahead of TX, so TX might need to leap-frog both PA/WI on the tipping-pt list. But the state is so demographically distinct, and new to competitiveness, that I'm reluctant to say it's *impossible* — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 2, 2019 Hibernated