Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 28, 2020

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Thu Jul 25 16:36:04 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

--indeed, potus approval is unchanged in quinnipiac's own polling of ohio--the same poll that seemed to grossly overstate dem performance there --i think 2020 match-up v approval is interesting. i'd take approval, given that we have stronger priors and seems stable — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 25, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

--calibration is REALLY beneficial, given systematic, multi-cycle errors in the midwest/ohio. --indeed, quinnipiac's last poll in OH was brown+17, cordray+2, and trump approval at 43/54. --trump approval is quite stable, so 8 mo doesn't worry me given other benefits — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 25, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

--and we have pretty good reason to think, based on your own approval tracker, that the president's rating is at something like -9 among RVs. we know ohio voted 11 pts the right of the country in 2016. saying trump's badly underwater is a stretch! this is not a tough call. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 25, 2019 Hibernated