Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 28, 2020

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Thu Jul 25 16:34:11 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

--the data covers many modes: online, live interview RBS+result, online+live interview RBS, in-person, and the hard results. --there is extensive analysis, including implied by your own pre-election analysis, that 2018 electorate ~ = RVs/2020 https://t.co/qHbxaVr4gm — PolitiTweet.org

Your hypothesis relies on data that's (i) 8 months old (ii) was collected mostly online (fine but not gold-standard… https://t.co/wjXcXGvJwE

Posted July 25, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My hypothesis is that the president's approval rating in Ohio is probably better than this one poll in Quinnipiac, based on election results and high-quality, large, calibrated election surveys that are easily forgotten but deserve to be remembered https://t.co/9oxeDVR7hJ — PolitiTweet.org

It just seems like there's a lot of ambiguity around your hypothesis, which of course there there is because it's 1… https://t.co/6i58zxyzdV

Posted July 25, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

--calibration is REALLY beneficial, given systematic, multi-cycle errors in the midwest/ohio. --indeed, quinnipiac's last poll in OH was brown+17, cordray+2, and trump approval at 43/54. --trump approval is quite stable, so 8 mo doesn't worry me given other benefits — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 25, 2019 Hibernated