Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 28, 2020

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Sat Jul 20 17:17:35 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NateSilver538 @mattyglesias If you want to say it has 0 effect on p(ec-pv) split, I think you're probably wrong about that. If you want to say it's unethical to disagree with you, that's laughable — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 20, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NateSilver538 @mattyglesias lolol here's what's not in dispute, afaik: the president's approval rating in the tipping-point states is meaningfully what it is nationwide. If you want to dispute it, go ahead. If you want to say it can change, I agree. If you want to say it's irrelevant, that's preposterous — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 20, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think it's unlikely but fwiw I think it's a Bush '00-->'040like trend. Here, Trump stronger than '16 non-white voters, thanks to econ/incumbency/lower educational attainment. Dems get some third-party vote, in north/west. Big GOP gains w southern WWC https://t.co/xeQ9ezj8xh — PolitiTweet.org

I suppose I’d just challenge @NateSilver538 to come up w/ any scenario in which the 2020 Dem loses the popular vote… https://t.co/475UlISY8l

Posted July 20, 2019 Hibernated