Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 10, 2020

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Fri Jul 19 18:04:03 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It might be fun to take a look at these state-by-state approval estimates, based on data from the exit polls, the CCES, the AP/NORC Votecast survey, and a model based on Times/Siena data and the actual results. https://t.co/aUIQ0SAvHc https://t.co/mk580DEnfZ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In an election with high enough turnout, particularly from Hispanics, Arizona could supplant Wisconsin as the tipping-point state. But at least in this analysis, Arizona would still be farther to the right of the country than Wisconsin was in 2016 https://t.co/aUIQ0SAvHc — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think these estimates have a lot going for them: they're based on large, high-quality surveys calibrated to the actual results. They sometimes differ a lot from some other numbers I see thrown around, often from some low quality state polls or some national approval estimates — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2019 Hibernated