Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 28, 2020

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Wed Jul 17 15:05:54 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@awmercer @BrianStryker @EmGusk @Slate @yghitza @davidshor and as alluded to, i didn't see this myself back in june of 2017, and presented as much at aapor. but there's 3x as much data here than i had at the time. one possibility is the timeframe is too broad; might take a look at that — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 17, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrianStryker @awmercer @EmGusk @Slate @yghitza @davidshor based on this pretty cursory take, you could argue that the 'midwest error' is present in this set of RDD polls (i can imagine arguments against such a broad collection, way before the election) but the sun belt error isn't present. clinton seems just fine in CA, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 17, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonfavs @mattyglesias @blfraga it's also worth noting that clinton, at best, *barely* wins in that scenario, as opposed to *barely* losing. this is not a huge shift. in contrast, obama would have won mich., penn. and ohio without any votes at all in detroit, milwaukee, and cleveland — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 17, 2019 Hibernated