Rob Lee

@RALee85 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 6, 2022

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Fri Sep 02 19:06:39 +0000 2022

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Rob Lee @RALee85

So any analysis of whether Ukraine will have success in Kherson depends on making estimates about a number of critical tangible factors (other people may have a better estimate/understanding). When you add several uncertain estimates together, you have weak data. 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2022

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Rob Lee @RALee85

In order to mass sufficient forces that are well-trained for an offensive in Kherson, Ukraine may have to pull units or reserves away from other parts of the front. That means Russia may be able to take terrain elsewhere as a result. 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2022

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Rob Lee @RALee85

So I can't make a high-confidence prediction, but Ukraine has a number of advantages pursuing a campaign in Kherson. It may not have an overall advantage in artillery and armor, but it likely does in Kherson and certainly in tactical engagements when it masses them. 7/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2022