Rob Lee

@RALee85 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 6, 2022

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Fri Sep 02 19:09:25 +0000 2022

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Rob Lee @RALee85

So I can't make a high-confidence prediction, but Ukraine has a number of advantages pursuing a campaign in Kherson. It may not have an overall advantage in artillery and armor, but it likely does in Kherson and certainly in tactical engagements when it masses them. 7/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2022

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Rob Lee @RALee85

So any analysis of whether Ukraine will have success in Kherson depends on making estimates about a number of critical tangible factors (other people may have a better estimate/understanding). When you add several uncertain estimates together, you have weak data. 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2022

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Rob Lee @RALee85

Russia depended on a significant advantage in artillery rounds fired in the Donbas. Russia can resupply its forces across the Dnipro with ferries, but it likely can't deliver enough artillery ammunition and other heavy equipment if Ukrainian leans heavily on artillery. 8/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2022