Rob Lee

@RALee85 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 6, 2022

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Fri Sep 02 19:00:45 +0000 2022

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Rob Lee @RALee85

In order to mass sufficient forces that are well-trained for an offensive in Kherson, Ukraine may have to pull units or reserves away from other parts of the front. That means Russia may be able to take terrain elsewhere as a result. 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2022

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Rob Lee @RALee85

But it is less clear if Ukraine has sufficient tanks, IFVs, and other system, which are critical to for any offensive. And you need well-trained forces (with armor) to conduct offensive operations well and to rapidly exploit breakthroughs. 4/ https://t.co/WflWhD6WeY — PolitiTweet.org

"The mission had carried two objectives, he said: to find Russian positions and to find abandoned equipment... 'We’… https://t.co/RxIhQW3QVP

Posted Sept. 2, 2022

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Rob Lee @RALee85

So any analysis of whether Ukraine will have success in Kherson depends on making estimates about a number of critical tangible factors (other people may have a better estimate/understanding). When you add several uncertain estimates together, you have weak data. 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2022