Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Summary thread. A forecast MUST account for its own error. Since small probabilities are convex, uncertainty raises them. Nate Silver & Phil the Rat🐁 @PTetlock didn't get that ALL methods end up converging to the same price (Tetlock🐁 never understood the Brier Score). — PolitiTweet.org
David Salazar @DavidSalazarVir
Thus, we arrive at the great @nntaleb plot. With so much uncertainty and lots of time leading up to the election,… https://t.co/MVmAF3EStE
