Nassim Nicholas Taleb

@nntaleb ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 15, 2021

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Thu Aug 27 19:41:49 +0000 2020

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

In other words your forecast reflects the uncertainty built in because it raises low probabilities (below ½) and lower high prob so you converge to ½ under maximal uncertainty. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

4th paper abt my problem w/Nate Silver & that idiot @PTetlock over election forecasting. It's (perhaps) refining my methodology & that of @DhruvMadeka Basically: Predictions must have #skininthegame hence MUST be subjected to arbitrage boundaries. https://t.co/41oyenLIrW https://t.co/hrhGLWMrfK — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@JudieVerc @PTetlock @DhruvMadeka https://t.co/pj0gY5ufjN — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated