Nassim Nicholas Taleb

@nntaleb ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked Sept. 15, 2021

Created

Thu Aug 27 19:39:41 +0000 2020

Likes

256

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

4th paper abt my problem w/Nate Silver & that idiot @PTetlock over election forecasting. It's (perhaps) refining my methodology & that of @DhruvMadeka Basically: Predictions must have #skininthegame hence MUST be subjected to arbitrage boundaries. https://t.co/41oyenLIrW https://t.co/hrhGLWMrfK — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

2/ Google Translate iza bit na22é shubit2ul ma fi ytrjem w l 3alam hon bidi3o shwayy. Baddak tékhedon w tjibon shwayy. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

In other words your forecast reflects the uncertainty built in because it raises low probabilities (below ½) and lower high prob so you converge to ½ under maximal uncertainty. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated