Nassim Nicholas Taleb

@nntaleb ↗

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Last Checked March 7, 2021

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Wed May 13 12:16:22 +0000 2020

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

Paper with @DrCirillo forthcoming in Nature Physics later this week explaining the point, @mattwridley. Tail exponent <1, even possibly <½ means NEVER issue a single point forecast and NEVER present an average. https://t.co/51GNm1cr5t — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 13, 2020 Hibernated

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

ERRORS 101 Never produce a point estimate for risk management, esp. in a fat tailed domain, rather show statistical properties. Never judge a risk management stance from point forecasts. These errors are promoted by the Idiot of Pennsylvania, Phil the rat 🐁 Tetlock @PTetlock. — PolitiTweet.org

In various years in the early 2000s Ferguson predicted up to 136,000 deaths from mad cow disease, 200 million from… https://t.co/ZafbcfBjDR

Posted May 13, 2020 Hibernated

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

For pandemics if the average exists, about ~95-99.9% of observations would fall BELOW the average. Aside from the slow workings of the law of large numbers. Should I explain this in a short video? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 13, 2020 Hibernated