Sahil Kapur

@sahilkapur ↗

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Last Checked July 17, 2022

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Mon Aug 30 18:19:43 +0000 2021

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Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

So the skepticism of polling is warranted, but the caveats to 2020 are notable: 2021-'22 cycle is a different context. The lockdowns are no more and a key wildcard named Trump is not on the ballot. Last time both those were true—2018—polls were accurate. https://t.co/2FDBLkiCj5 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 30, 2021 Hibernated

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Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

Pollsters have theories for big '20 miss. Did D responses soar during WFH? Did Trump's attacks on polls make his voters ignore 'em? Was there a "hidden" DJT vote of ppl who wouldn't admit? All of the above? Problem is it's hard to isolate variables in rare Covid lockdown context. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 30, 2021 Hibernated

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Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

2016 was different. National polls then were remarkably close—RCP average was just 1.1 pts off the final—but numerous state polls were way off. One big reason was the failure to weight by education at a time of spiking college vs. non-col disparities. https://t.co/0CJsetAjYn — PolitiTweet.org

@sahilkapur Do those same theories apply to the 2016 miss?

Posted Aug. 30, 2021 Hibernated