Sahil Kapur

@sahilkapur ↗

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Last Checked July 17, 2022

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Mon Aug 30 18:09:14 +0000 2021

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Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

Pollsters have theories for big '20 miss. Did D responses soar during WFH? Did Trump's attacks on polls make his voters ignore 'em? Was there a "hidden" DJT vote of ppl who wouldn't admit? All of the above? Problem is it's hard to isolate variables in rare Covid lockdown context. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 30, 2021 Hibernated

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Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

A very fair question! No doubt 2020 polling was sharply skewed toward Dems and pollsters don't have great explanations why. But was it a unique moment or new normal? 2018 polling was pretty accurate; in fact it *understated* Dem support a bit per RCP avg https://t.co/nGZDXxzLoB — PolitiTweet.org

Again, I ask -- does anyone remember the fiasco in November? Polling has a sytemic problem in overstating support f… https://t.co/blZ0BLJprZ

Posted Aug. 30, 2021 Hibernated

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Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

So the skepticism of polling is warranted, but the caveats to 2020 are notable: 2021-'22 cycle is a different context. The lockdowns are no more and a key wildcard named Trump is not on the ballot. Last time both those were true—2018—polls were accurate. https://t.co/2FDBLkiCj5 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 30, 2021 Hibernated