Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 18, 2022

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Wed Nov 09 14:03:01 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't feel like getting into a big argument this morning re: RCP, but I'm also pretty annoyed with people lumping 538 together with RCP. Polling websites and forecasts that followed a rigorous, non-arbitrary process (i.e. not RCP) did pretty darn well last night. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 9, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I mean, seriously, we could easily wind up with anything from a 51-49 D Senate and Ds keeping the House to a 51-49 GOP Senate and GOP +20-25 seats in the House. Those average out to a rather bad night for the GOP but they're pretty different outcomes. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 9, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@lxeagle17 @SplitTicket_ Honestly I'd have no problem if RCP had a *forecast* that used whatever methodology they wanted, including "take the polling average and shift it R by 3 points". But the fact is that their *polling average* is not a reasonable attempt to describe what the polls, in fact, say. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 9, 2022