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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Whether the traders are right or not, their estimate is internally consistent. Ds have narrow advantages in 3 key states (PA/GA/AZ). If everything *exactly* goes to form they win the Senate. But it's dicey probabilistically, which traders understand and this journalist doesn't. — PolitiTweet.org

Very good example of how illogical betting markets are. When betters on PredictIt bet on individual states, they a… https://t.co/ROUBPinuoT

Posted Oct. 19, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The economy is pretty weird, without a lot of good historic precedents, and macroeconomic forecasts have a long history of overconfidence. A recession may be more likely than not, but if your model says 100%, it is a bad model. — PolitiTweet.org

UPDATE: The probability of a recession within the next year is now 100%. https://t.co/Jn31jEzZnR

Posted Oct. 18, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Clearer signs of movement back toward the GOP in the Senate than you had a couple of weeks ago. Getting close to tossup territory. https://t.co/GA3xa1GJaG https://t.co/baWOOLoVbJ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 19, 2022