Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated No

Last Checked Nov. 11, 2022

Created

Tue Oct 18 16:27:58 +0000 2022

Likes

2,930

Retweets

178

Source

Twitter for Android

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The economy is pretty weird, without a lot of good historic precedents, and macroeconomic forecasts have a long history of overconfidence. A recession may be more likely than not, but if your model says 100%, it is a bad model. — PolitiTweet.org

UPDATE: The probability of a recession within the next year is now 100%. https://t.co/Jn31jEzZnR

Posted Oct. 18, 2022

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Thing about the midterms is that the big picture tends to be slow-moving and doesn't change much from day to day, it's not like a presidential primary or something where you can have wild swings overnight. So, it's usually not worth caring much about any one day's worth of polls. https://t.co/FYOGN8Gcq9 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 18, 2022

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Whether the traders are right or not, their estimate is internally consistent. Ds have narrow advantages in 3 key states (PA/GA/AZ). If everything *exactly* goes to form they win the Senate. But it's dicey probabilistically, which traders understand and this journalist doesn't. — PolitiTweet.org

Very good example of how illogical betting markets are. When betters on PredictIt bet on individual states, they a… https://t.co/ROUBPinuoT

Posted Oct. 19, 2022