Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 31, 2022

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Fri Sep 09 13:50:22 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Given current coalitions, you need something like a D+3 or D+4 *popular vote* for each party to win *elections* half the time. So I propose that a D+3 or D+4 popular vote is what a *default" or "neutral" year looks like; NOT the generic ballot being tied (D+0). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 9, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Basically I'm trying to think about the Nash equilibrium (!) when some votes are more valuable than others, e.g. when rural votes are disproportionately important in the Senate. I propose each party still wins elections ~50% of the time but rural preferences are more catered to. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 9, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Maybe some folks predicted this but I don't think many (would be good to see receipts). A better & more common argument was that some NPI strategies had no endgame or limiting principle, therefore it was important to rebut the technocrats and say "enough is enough" at some point. — PolitiTweet.org

A certain set of folks on here histrionically predicted that Covid-era public health restrictions would remain in f… https://t.co/0rphzZssS3

Posted Sept. 9, 2022