Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 21, 2022

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Wed Aug 10 13:30:09 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The last time POTUS's party gained seats in the House were 1998 and 2002. These are generally attributed to Lewinsky and 9/11, respectively. If Ds hold the House in 2022, people will attribute it to Roe being overturned and overall GOP radicalization including Jan. 6. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here's something I think about. Let's say Democrats somehow do hold the House this year. It's not likely, but it's also not impossible (~20% chance per 538 model). In 20 years, will people have a hard time explaining why it happened? I think no, they won't. — PolitiTweet.org

GOP are still clear favorites to retake the House but I think we've gotten to the point where CW is overstating the… https://t.co/paL01QVmEl

Posted Aug. 10, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Is Dobbs + Jan. 6 a "special circumstance" equal in magnitude to 9/11? That's a very apples-to-oranges comparison but I'd tend to say no; people forget how profoundly 9/11 changed public opinion. But is it comparable to Lewinsky? Certainly. It's bigger, I'd think. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2022