Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 31, 2022

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Tue Jan 04 20:38:33 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Seems increasingly likely (though by no means certain) that the center will hold in NYC. However, a close call in NYC could still portend problems elsewhere as we have more immunity and hospital capacity than most places. — PolitiTweet.org

Yesterday was Manhattan's peak in reported case numbers. Week-over-week cases are lower. And for the first time sin… https://t.co/mm226VjVaw

Posted Jan. 4, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@electricalWSOP The way to do that, since there's no intrinsically right answer, is observe people's behavior, i.e. empirically derive how much they're willing to ↑ risk of death for ↑ quality of life. When people have run those numbers, COVID lockdowns come out as a big negative. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 4, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@electricalWSOP I don't think that quite follows. My argument is that even you assume people bear all risk for themselves, lockdowns would fail a cost-benefit test according to most people's risk tolerance. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 4, 2022