Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 5, 2022

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Sun Dec 19 00:22:14 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you ask the report authors, they say they're not making predictions: rather, they're modeling "scenarios" conditional on certain assumptions. But, of course, the media treats them as predictions and governments use them to rally support for their preferred policies. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 19, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Granted this is a hard problem, since epidemic outcomes are determined in part by governmental choices. But as someone who makes models for a living, I find worrying when there's such a murky overlap between modeling outcomes and enacting policy recommendations. — PolitiTweet.org

Extraordinary: the head of the SAGE modelling group admits that they only model worst-case scenarios as that’s what… https://t.co/iAs5b7y14f

Posted Dec. 19, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And of course, because governments tend to enact the recommendations of their advisory groups, the assumptions behind the worst-case "scenarios" (which assume *inaction*) never come to pass and can never be verified. In the Popperian sense, it's not really science at all. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 19, 2021