Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 8, 2021

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Thu Jul 22 19:37:49 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@seeglazek @JamesSurowiecki What happened in Provincetown isn't that relevant because infections are clustered so it's ~n=1. Nearly every beach town in a temperate climate had lots of visitors on July 4. What happened on Fire Island? On Martha's Vineyard? In Bar Harbor, ME? On Long Beach Island, NJ? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 22, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@seeglazek @JamesSurowiecki The studies are all over the place in re: how effective the vaccines are against mild infections from Delta, from mid 60s through low 90s. I'm pretty skeptical that people's evidence from their social circles can meaningfully distinguish between the higher and lower estimates. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 22, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@seeglazek @JamesSurowiecki Why is it not consistent? 45% of the UK population is not fully vaxed (and those unvaccinated people clustered in certain age ranges and geographic areas and so can spread to one another) and Delta has an incredibly high R0 among the unvaccinated. And yeah AZ < mRNA. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 22, 2021