Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 21, 2021

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Thu May 27 11:46:06 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Sure you can. In fact, people unavoidably do it all the time. It may not be a particularly robust estimate. But this is the whole basis of Bayesian thinking. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 27, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Maybe a lazy heuristic. But TBH, when the evidence is murky and there are plenty of experts lining up on both sides, but one side is excessively concerned with policing the discourse (see e.g. the tweet I cited), I tend to think that side is more likely than not to be wrong. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 27, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@florian_krammer I'm nervous that you're that confident but you've had a very good track record and I really appreciate you going on record with this. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 27, 2021