Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 19, 2021

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Tue May 25 12:16:21 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Basically what I want to know is: what would experts say if you gave them truth serum? Given that many experts are now publicly entertaining the possibility of a lab leak when that would be a somewhat inconvenient conclusion, I assume their private belief might be higher. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 25, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, this is probably right. I wrote the other day how my priors had shifted from "natural origin slightly more likely" to "lab leak slightly more likely". But to me anyway, the evidence seems murky and inscrutable either way and I'm not sure it has *changed* that much. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 25, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But IDK ^^^ that's liable to be a pretty unreliable heuristic (trying to triangulate private beliefs from carefully-worded public statements). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 25, 2021