Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 13, 2021

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Thu Mar 25 14:32:24 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The other big finding is that we no longer see a clear rationale to give live-caller polls a higher grade by default in our pollster ratings. For one thing, they haven't particularly outperformed other methodologies. https://t.co/iy502D79RU — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In an environment where politics are highly nationalized and polarized, you don't really have "50 separate contests" for the presidency. For that matter, presidential and downballot outcomes are highly correlated. So if your polls are off in one race, they may be off everywhere. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For another thing, it no longer really makes sense to classify entire *polling firms* by their methodology. Lots of polling firms mix-and-match methodologies, change them in midstream, etc. Methodology is a characteristic of a poll, not the pollster. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021