Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 24, 2021

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Tue Mar 02 22:18:14 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kwcollins @laurabronner Out of all of those, a presidential general cycle is probably the least informative since it's more correlated from race to race than a midterm or a primary. But even if you ignore that the Nov. 2020 cycle is like 5% of the overall data. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 2, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kwcollins @laurabronner Well, we have a decent sample size! The pollster ratings now account for 6 presidential general cycles, 6 midterm cycles, 9 primary cycles (counting D and R primaries separately) plus myriad special elections and other one-offs. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 2, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MileHighBrendan Yeah, my prior at this point (well, mostly from looking at @youyanggu's numbers) that R increased from like 0.8-0.85 to 0.9-0.95. Which isn't fantastic by any means but could also be worse. It seems like both variants and vaccines could be near an inflection point so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 3, 2021