Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 3, 2021

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Mon Feb 15 14:13:08 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW, this was not well-predicted by most of the models. As of a month ago most models still expected a plateau or a modest rise in new cases and not the sharp decline we've seen. Looks like we're pretty far outside the 95% confidence interval in fact. https://t.co/0SqfplR8de https://t.co/fzZPxE81cd — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 15, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It seems like very good news that COVID cases have fallen by almost ~2/3 in ~30 days. That plus vaccine distribution accelerating would seem to give us a fighting chance of avoiding a fourth wave as new variants become more commonplace. https://t.co/J7oV09M187 https://t.co/MQOSBhERKa — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 15, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'll end with the obligatory: This is not an argument for relaxing restrictions, cases are still quite high, variants are coming, so let's crush this thing further. Still, I'd love to see more debate from epis about why this is happening, e.g. if seasonality has been underrated. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 15, 2021