Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 1, 2021

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Wed Feb 10 22:41:56 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@phl43 @davidshor To bring this full circle, I agree that this is exactly the sort of thing that you shouldn't be using the "eyeball test" for and people are at risk of cherry-picking if they do. I also don't think it's completely intractable, though; you can probably draw some rough bounds. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 10, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@phl43 @davidshor If you're looking at cases instead, then you run into issues like incomplete reporting, lags, etc, especially early in the pandemic. And more recently, other confounders like new variants emerging, meaningful levels of community immunity, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 10, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@phl43 @davidshor I'm certainly not reflexively pro-lockdown and I agree that their costs (especially non-economic costs) aren't considered enough. Though I happen to think a number of factors make the case for keeping restrictions in place quite strong in e.g. the US and the UK for right now. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 10, 2021